The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons in a divisional battle on Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium. It’s only Week 7 of the NFL season but the NFC South looks like it will be a dogfight between the Falcons, Saints, and Bucs, all of whom have three wins. These teams have all had a tough time scoring points but have been stingy on defense.
That’s reflected in the NFL odds for this clash, with the Over/Under at just 37.5 while the Bucs are installed as slim 2.5-point home favorites. Here are my best free Falcons vs. Buccaneers NFL picks for Sunday, October 21.
Falcons vs Buccaneers odds
Falcons vs Buccaneers predictions
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 24-16 loss to the Commanders where quarterback Desmond Ridder threw three interceptions. Despite those sloppy turnovers we saw Falcons head coach Arthur Smith open up his playbook for the second straight game.
After barely throwing the ball downfield at the beginning of the season, Ridder had a season-high 47 pass attempts for 307 yards against Washington and had a career-high 329 passing yards versus Houston in Week 5.
Part of the reason why the Falcons have been throwing more is their usually effective running attack has been held to just 3.5 yards per carry over the last four games. That ground game could be bottled up again on Sunday by a Tampa Bay Buccaneers stop unit that ranks third in the league in defensive rush EPA.
With Tampa Bay likely stacking the box and forcing Atlanta to attack downfield, expect Ridder to be locked on to his top target Drake London. London was taken with the eighth pick in last year’s draft and he racked up 866 receiving yards as a rookie, culminating in a 120-yard performance against the Bucs in the season finale. London hauled in nine of 12 targets for 125 yards last week and had six catches for 78 yards against the Texans in Week 5.
The Bucs are 26th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (247.0) and have allowed more than 100 yards to an opponent’s No. 1 receiver in four of five games this year. With London’s receiving yards total sitting at just 46.5, hammer the Over.
My best bet: Drake London Over 46.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Falcons vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Drake London Over 48.5 receiving yardsDesmond Ridder Over 208.5 passing yardsRachaad White Under 47.5 rushing yardsBaker Mayfield Over 218.5 passing yards50% boost available
+789 +1,183 at FanDuel
Since I’m expecting a strong performance from London, it also makes sense to play the Over on Ridder’s passing yards, which is set at just 208.5 due to the first few weeks of the year.
The Bucs have been stingy against the run but the Falcons have been even better, ranking first in the league in defensive rush EPA. That’s bad news for a Tampa Bay offense that has the inefficient Rachaad White as its lead back. White is second-last in the league in rushing yards over expected and is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.
The Bucs have been running the ball way too often on first and second downs, which has been putting them into tough third-and-long situations. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales needs to start throwing more, especially against a Falcons secondary that is 24th in dropback EPA. That should mean fewer carries for White and a bounce-back performance from Baker Mayfield, who also has a low passing yards total.
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Falcons vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Bucs installed as 2.5-point home favorites and while that spread hasn’t seen movement, the total has dropped from the opening number of 39.5 to 37.5.
The Bucs are coming off a 20-6 home loss to the Lions, which dropped their record to 3-2 straight up and against the spread on the year.
The Falcons are fresh off a loss to the Commanders where they were slim 1-point home faves. They are 3-3 SU but haven’t covered the spread since their season opener against the winless Carolina Panthers. With their sluggish tempo, solid defense, and pedestrian offense, the Falcons have seen plenty of short spreads. The biggest spread in any Atlanta game this year was the Falcons -3.5 line against the Panthers in Week 1.
